學術活動與計劃-研究計畫

「兩岸談判」研究團隊

兩岸談判就議題的政治性來分，可分為高政治性及低政治性兩大類。前者如和平協議、中程協議、統一或統合協議、軍事互信機制，後者如通航協議、觀光協議、兩岸經濟架構協議（ECFA）等等。兩岸自從1987年恢復往來以降，雖然未曾簽署任何政治性協議，但是非政治性協議，在1993年簽署了四項，2008-2016年則簽署達20餘項。準此，兩岸協商是兩岸關係中一個相當重要的主題，值得學界加以深入研究，不僅有其學術貢獻，亦可作為政府智庫的角色。

尤有進者，兩岸談判已從過去的經貿等低政治性議題，逐漸進入高政治議題的所謂「深水區」。就我方而言，政治議題的談判為的是換得兩岸的和平相處與臺灣的長治久安；但是就北京而言，政治談判的最高目標在於「和平統一」，即使一時之間無法達成統一的目標，至少也能達到一種統一前的特殊政治安排，迫使臺灣逐漸走向統一的道路。

2008-2016年馬英九總統主政期間，由於馬政府接受北京所設定的「九二共識」、反臺獨的「共同政治基礎」，兩岸因此加速往來，除了前述簽署多項經貿、共打犯罪等低政治性協議外，兩岸事務主管層級的「王張會」、「夏張會」亦舉辦多次，最後的高峰則是2015年11月7日兩岸領導人會面的「馬習會」，這一步一步的鋪陳多由北京所主導，為的是兩岸政治談判。2016年5月20日後，臺灣雖然換由獨派色彩的民進黨執政，但這不表示兩岸政治談判已變成完全不可能；相反地，蔡英文總統過去的職業生涯即擅長於國際談判，後來又曾擔任陸委會主委，「馬習會」前後的一項民調顯示，臺灣民眾在諸多政治人物中，最信任蔡英文與北京進行政治談判。因此，兩岸政治談判極可能在蔡英文手中有所突破，但是臺灣準備好了沒有？質言之，我們將準備怎樣的政治談判方案，對方可能的版本為何？國會如何監督政治談判，民意又如何反應，甚至美方的立場為何？凡此種種都值得深入研究，並及早準備。

基於上述的目的，並為兼顧學術及政府智庫的雙重角色，「中國大陸研究中心」遂成立「兩岸談判研究團隊」，由曾任行政院大陸委員會的國發所陳明通教授主持，成員中更邀請到國發所周繼祥教授，周教授現任專司兩岸談判的海基會副董事長兼副秘書長。陳周兩人豐富的理論與實務經驗，再配合多位兩岸關係以及談判賽局博奕理論的專家學者，打造了本研究團隊最堅強的陣容並設定如下的研究方向。

可能的研究方向：

議題領域	可能的研究面向	相關重大議題
國會監督	兩岸談判監督條例	政治及非政治談判
民意反應	定期民調民眾對兩岸談判的態度	政治談判相關議題
北京的態度	中國官方及涉台智庫	政治談判可能內容
美方的態度	美國官方及智庫	政治談判美方角色
談判博奕	兩岸談判的博奕分析	政治及非政治談判

 

 

Cross-Strait Negotiation Research Team

The topic of cross-Strait negotiation can be roughly divided into two categories depending on whether the issue for negotiation involves high politics or low politics. Negotiation of an interim peace agreement, military confidence building measures, or a pact leading to political integration or unification belong to the high politics category. The low politics category includes negotiation of functional and economic issues such as ECFA and agreements on cross-Strait aviation and tourism Although Beijing and Taipei have never entered into negotiation of political issues, the two sides have concluded four functional agreements and more than twenty economic agreements since cross-Strait interaction resumed in 1987. Cross-Strait dialogue and negotiation is a major topic in cross-Strait relations and in-depth academic study of this topic has both academic and practical value.

Research on cross-Strait negotiation is especially important and timely as dialogue between the two sides is gradually moving from functional and economic issues toward the “deep water zone” of political relations and the sovereignty dispute. From Taiwan’s perspective, the purpose of political negotiation is to ensure peaceful relations between the two sides. China, however, views political negotiation as a means to achieving “peaceful unification,” or at least as a way to lock Taiwan on a gradual path to eventual unification.

The pace of cross-Strait interaction accelerated during the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou from 2008 to 2016. Ma’s administration accepted Beijing’s demand for a “joint political basis” based on the “92 consensus” and opposition to Taiwan independence. The two sides concluded a series of economic liberalization and anti-crime agreements while the level of cross-Strait dialogue was raised from semi-official organizations to official government departments during the Wang-Zhang and Xia-Zhang meetings and then reached historic heights at the Ma-Xi leadership meeting in November 2015. This gradual deepening of dialogue was driven largely by Beijing in an effort to pave the way for political negotiation. The transfer of governing power to the independence-leaning DPP following Tsai Ing-wen’s inauguration as Taiwan’s president in May 2016 does not preclude the possibility of cross-Strait political negotiation. In fact, Tsai’s expertise in international negotiation and experience serving as head of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council- in addition to opinion polls indicating Taiwanese trust her most among Taiwanese politicians to undertake political negotiation with Beijing- suggest a breakthrough in cross-Strait political negotiation could occur during her presidency. But is Taiwan prepared for this possibility? What sort of proposals might Taipei and Beijing offer in political negotiaions? How would Taiwan’s legislature exert oversight? How would public opinion react? What position would the United States take?

The NTU Center for China Studies has established a Cross-Strait Political Negotiation Research Team to address the critical need for academic research of this important topic. The team is led by Dr. Ming-tong Chen, former director of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, and includes Professor Jin-Shine Chou, who served as vice-director and vice-secretary of Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation. Team members include experts on cross-Strait relations and game theoretical approaches to negotiation. The team’s research will focus on the following areas:

Topic	Research Focus	Related issues
legislative oversight	Cross-Strait Negotiation Supervisory Act	political and non-political negotiation
public opinion	regularized opinion surveys of public attitudes toward cross-strait negotiation	issues related to political negotiation
PRC attitude	PRC government and think tanks	possible content and details of political negotiation
US attitude	US government and think-tank	US role in political negotiation
negotiation games	game theoretical analysis of cross-strait negotiation	political and non-political negotiation

計畫名稱：兩岸談判研究團隊

計畫主持人：陳明通